University of Texas researchers have published their simple scoring method for determining the risk of osteoporosis in men over 60. It appears in the Annals of Family Medicine. The idea is to identify those men who should have a test of bone density ( dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry, or DXA), in order to allow treatment before they have a hip fracture or other cause of disability.

Data on known risk factors were taken from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III (NHANES III) study. First, 1500 men over 50 supplied data to develop the model of the scoring method. An additional 1500 patients were used to help in 'validation' i.e. testing for sensitivity and specificity of the system.

The best (best-fitting) model used three factors: age, weight, and history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).

- Age between 56 and 74 = 3 points, 75 and above = 4 points.
- Weight between 154 and 176 lbs = 4 points, weight 154 and below = 6 points.
- History of COPD = 3 points

A score of 6 or more points had a sensitivity of 93%, i.e. a score of 6 points or above means there's a likelihood of osteoporosis in 93% of those with this result. A score of fewer than 6 points had a specificity of 59%, i.e. a score of less than 6 indicates a high risk of osteoporosis is present in only 41% of people with this result.

To help further in evaluating the usefulness of the test - which is called MORES, or Male Osteoporosis Risk Evaluation Score - the number of men over 50 needed to screen with DXA to prevent one additional hip fracture in the next 10 years was 279.

The numbers may seem less convincing than you would like. But running the MORES is something that you can do for yourself in less than three minute, and if you have a 'positive' result (a score of 6 points or more) it would be well worth your while to ask your doctor about a DXA test. Hip fractures can be quite lethal in older folk.