Diabetes is a chronic and progressive disease that can lead to long-term complications if not promptly diagnosed and treated. In 2009, the number of Americans with both diagnosed and undiagnosed diabetes was estimated to be 23.7 million. Now, in the December 2009 issue of Diabetes Care, researchers from the University of Chicago report on their projections of the future diabetes population size in the United States.

The researchers developed a population-level model for projecting future direct healthcare spending on diabetes. Based on their model, the researchers estimate that the number of people with diagnosed and undiagnosed diabetes will nearly double over the next 25 years to 44.1 million. They also project that the obesity distribution in the population with diabetes will remain stable over time with approximately 65 percent of the American population being characterized as overweight or obese. Annual diabetes-related spending is expected to increase from $113 billion to $336 billion (based on 2007 dollars). Specifically for the Medicare-eligible population, the number of people with diabetes is expected to increase from 8.2 million in 2009 to 14.6 million in 2034 with an associated increase in spending from $45 billion to $171 billion.

Based on this projection model, the U.S. diabetes population and the related healthcare costs are expected to at least double in the next 25 years. The researchers suggest that their model can be used in the federal budget process to estimate the cost implications of healthcare policies. They also issue a reminder that, without changes to public or private strategies, the growing diabetes population is expected to add a significant strain to an already overburdened health care system.

Source:

Diabetes Care 2009;32(12):2225-2229.