It's cold weather, rather than influenza, that causes excess death and demands on the health service during the winter months, say researchers in London.

Most winters, the National Health Service finds coping with admissions and doctor visits a strain. It's long been assumed that influenza is the cause of the excess demand, especially among vulnerable elderly people.

But researchers at Queen Mary and Westfield College London have discovered the real reason for excess winter deaths. They looked at deaths in south-east England from 1970 to 1999 for all causes and for influenza. They also checked the maximum and minimum temperatures at Heathrow Airport each day and learned that there was a link between low temperatures and excess deaths.

As far as influenza was concerned, this accounted for only 2.4 per cent of excess annual winter deaths. What's more, there's been a decline in influenza related death over the years, perhaps due to increased uptake of immunisation. So the best way of reducing the winter health crisis might be to reduce people's exposure to outdoor cold.

Source

British Medical Journal June 12 2002